With a higher IPO valuation, is Bumble aiming for Match.com’s revenue multiple?

Published February 8, 2021

The IPO frenzy is not letting up, Bumble informed the world this morning.

Per a new SEC filing, the dating company raised its target IPO price range, indicating that its previous attempt to quantify its per-share value was an undershoot. This means we’ll need to calculate a host of new valuations and revenue multiples for the company.

But more than that, we have a question to answer: Is Bumble aiming for a Match.com price, despite not being as profitable as its already-public rival? The last time we covered the pair, Bumble’s implied revenue multiples were discounted compared to Match, but with this new price, has the smaller company gained ground?

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And if so, does it mean that we’re seeing more public market enthusiasm for private companies? We’ll find out.

When it comes to the frenetic demand for IPO shares from public investors, I am reminded of a particular Dilbert. In this particular strip, Wally gets fired and is then hired back as a consultant. People outside the company appear smarter, he said, so he’s now back and getting paid more money than before.

This, but for private companies going public. Some companies appear to have huge promise while private, only to fizzle slowly while public. Or they manage huge price gains during their IPO process, only to cede those wins after they have a few trading months under their belt.

Is that what’s going to happen with Bumble?

Bumble’s new IPO pricing range

Bumble targeted a $28 to $30 per-share IPO price when it first set a range, implying a greater than $1 billion raise. Now the company is selling more shares at an even higher price. From 34.5 million shares to 45 million, and at a new $37 to $39 per share price range, Bumble could raise $1.66 billion to $1.76 billion in its IPO.

And that’s not counting its underwriters’ option of 6.75 million shares, which might bring its total raise to $2.02 billion at the top end of its new pricing interval.

What is Bumble worth at those new prices? Using its simple, shares-outstanding post-IPO count of 112,745,301 — inclusive of its underwriters’ option — the company would be worth $4.17 billion to $4.4 billion.